This week, we’ve got a huge update for gamblers in the Sunshine State, and we’re also going to take a look at how we did predicting Oscars outcomes.
Of course, the far more important issue is the former.
In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis and Seminole Chief Marcellus Osceola, Jr., have signed a binding new gambling compact to replace – and expand – the 2010 compact that the state violated when it allowed local non-Seminole cardrooms to operate at struggling and defunct dog tracks.
The terms of the new compact are exciting for locals, to say the least:
- The Seminole-owned casinos in FL will now be able to legally host roulette and craps, two of the most lucrative games in the gambling industry (after slots and blackjack). Roulette and craps were specifically exempted from allowance in the 2010 compact, and the Seminole Tribe of Florida has been lobbying the state to allow these popular games ever since.
- All Seminole tribal casinos in the state will now be allowed to host on-site sports betting. Additionally, “racinos” and dog tracks around the state will be able to host satellite sportsbooks, sharing revenue with the Seminole. Presumably, Scientific Games will head up the sports betting software used by these venues, as they have contracts with the Hard Rock brand in other states where the Seminole operate sports betting lounges.
- The cardrooms that were central to the ongoing dispute between the Seminole and the state of Florida will be allowed to continue offering player-banked poker and VLTs, though their services will not be expanded (beyond sports betting kiosks and/or ticket windows).
Of course, online casino games and online sports betting are not part of the new Florida gambling compact, as these amusements would constitute gambling expansion, which must be voted on by referendum.
That said, don’t expect to see iGaming or online sports betting on the ballot in 2022 (or even 2024).
The Seminole are far more interested in using their new authority to offer sports wagering as an enticement for local bettors and tourists to visit their casinos to bet sports and then take those winnings to the gambling floor to play slots, blackjack, roulette, and craps.
In many US states with legal online gambling, sports betting is often viewed as the first step.
After online sportsbooks go live – and after their positive financial impacts are assessed – some states then move on to legalizing (or attempting to legalize) online iGaming.
A few states have legalized both at once (and Michigan even legalized online poker as part of their push), but these are exceptions to the rule.
For FL to offer domestic online sports betting, of course, domestic online casino gambling will have to be legalized at the same time.
Otherwise, the Seminole will view online sports wagering with antagonism, as it will keep potential visitors away from their gambling floors and resort venues.
Thus, it may be many years before the industry fully enters the digital age.
Fortunately, that doesn’t matter for the average Florida gambling enthusiast, as the new tribal compact will have no impact on their ability to legally access USA online betting sites.
As long as they sign up with the best USA-friendly casino sites and reputable online sportsbooks and poker rooms, FL players can enjoy every gambling market there is.
Best of all, when FL players participate in offshore gambling, they only have to be 18 or older. At local Seminole venues, the legal age to play is 21 and up.
2021 Oscars Betting Results – How Did We Do?
Last week, we listed the Oscars betting odds for the 93rd Academy Awards.
And despite the ceremony being a wokefest of political nonsense – resulting in the worst Oscars ratings in history and the first time ever that fewer than 10 million viewers tuned in – it’s still worth checking out how we did on our Academy Awards touts.
So without further ado, curtain up!
Note: The odds presented are from Bovada, BetOnline, and MyBookie, respectively, and winners are in bold.
Odds To Win Best Picture
- Nomadland -600, -750, -750
- The Trial Of The Chicago 7 +500, +800, +800
- Minari +1600, +900, +450,
- Promising Young Woman +2000, +900, +900
- Judas And The Black Messiah +4000, +2000, +1600
- Mank +4000, +2200
- Sound Of Metal +8000, +6600, +6500
- The Father +8000, +6600, +6500
We struggled with choosing between the favored Nomadland and the longshot Judas And The Black Messiah, but we ultimately settled on the former at -600.
Odds To Win Best Director
- Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) -3000, -3000, -2500
- David Fincher (Mank) +900, +1000, +1000
- Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) +2000, +1800, +1800
- Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) +2000, +1600, +700
- Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) +2500, +2800, +2800
Our words verbatim: “The Asian woman will win.”
We placed our bet at MyBookie at -2500, so we didn’t make much, but anything helps!
Odds To Win Best Original Screenplay
- Promising Young Woman -400, -550, -550
- The Trial Of The Chicago 7 +275, +250, +250
- Minari +1200, +1400, +1400
- Judas And The Black Messiah +3300, +3300, +3300
- Sound Of Metal +3300, +3300, +3300
We didn’t wager on this line, but our pick was Judas And The Black Messiah.
We’re glad we held off, as the heavy favorite won (which is a trend you’ll see in most entertainment betting outcomes).
Odds To Win Best Adapted Screenplay
- Nomadland -275, -300, -300
- The Father +275, +275, +275
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm +700, +700, +700
- One Night In Miami +1600, +1200, +1200
- The White Tiger +4000, +2500, +2500
Our initial assessment, and we quote: “Pass.”
We stayed away from this line largely because we didn’t see any of this trash, but we’re surprised the favorite didn’t win.
For those who bet on The Father, props to your pops!
Odds To Win Best Cinematography
- Nomadland -400, -300, -500
- Mank +300, +200, +275
- News Of The World +1400, +1400, +1400
- Judas And The Black Messiah +2000, +1600, +1600
- The Trial Of The Chicago 7 +2500, +2000, +2000
What we said: “The favorite looks like a solid bet, but Mank got the most Oscar nominations and needs to win at least one award. Cinematography could be the sacrificial lamb for that boring garbage.”
Well, it wasn’t, and the favorite was indeed “a solid bet.”
We’re calling this one a win.
Odds To Win Best Actor
- Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) -1400, -2000, -2000
- Anthony Hopkins (The Father) +700, +700, +700
- Riz Ahmed (Sound Of Metal) +1100, +1400, +1400
- Gary Oldman (Mank) +3300, +3300, +3300
- Steven Yeun (Minari) +3300, +3300, +2000
We called Boseman’s Best Actor win “the only sure bet on the entire board.”
At least we won’t start a riot over the result, though.
And the potential payout wasn’t all that hefty, either.
Odds To Win Best Actress
- Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) +110, +130, +130
- Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) +205, +200, +150
- Frances McDormand (Nomadland) +350, +375, +350
- Andra Day (The United States Vs. Billie Holiday) +650, +500, +550
- Vanessa Kirby (Pieces Of A Woman) +2000, +1600, +1600
We called McDormand here, saying she was “due.”
Well, she was, and we won right alongside her.
In payout terms, this was our best bet of the night at +375.
Odds To Win Best Supporting Actor
- Daniel Kaluuya (Judas And The Black Messiah) -3000, -2500, -2500
- Paul Raci (Sound Of Metal) +1200, +1600, +2200
- Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial Of The Chicago 7) +1400, +1000, +3000
- Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night In Miami) +1600, +1400, +1600
- LaKeith Stanfield (Judas And The Black Messiah) +3300, +2800, +2800
We took the favorite and advised bettors to do the same. Money in the bank!
Odds To Win Best Supporting Actress
- Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) -500, -450, -600
- Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) +400, +450, +500
- Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) +900, +1200, +1500
- Olivia Colman (The Father) +2200, +1600, +1800
- Amanda Seyfried (Mank) +3300, +1600, +1800
We took the favorite here, too, and advised bettors to do the same. Even more money in the bank!
Odds To Win Best Visual Effects
- Tenet -350, -600, -700
- The Midnight Sky +240, +275, +250
- Mulan +1600, +1600, +1600
- Love And Monsters +2500, +2500, +2500
- The One And Only Ivan +2500, +2800, +2800
We were leaning toward Tenet but cautioned bettors that Mulan might be a better political play for the Academy.
In the end, however, Tenet won out as expected, and we were in the money yet again!
Odds To Win Best Animated Feature Film
- Soul -5000, -4000, -4000
- Wolfwalkers +800, +750, +750
- Onward +2000, +1400, +1400
- Over The Moon +2800, +1600, +1600
- A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon +3300, +2500, +2500
Our words: “A Disney Pixar movie with a black main character is a lock.”
The results: “A Disney Pixar movie with a black main character was a lock.”
As a rule, we don’t put much money on entertainment odds, as the payouts on the favorites – which, as you can see, typically win – are often so miniscule that you risk far too much when you bet to make actual bank.
For example, if you’d bet on Chadwick Boseman to win Best Actor and laid down the maximum (which would yield a tiny payout for a bet costing thousands to place), that single loss would wipe out all possible gains.
The risk – even when it’s minimal – is simply too risky.
Overall, on the lines we went on, we placed $10 on each. We won eight of nine bets, only losing on the Boseman line. Thus, we wagered a total of $90 and came away with $40.88 in winnings, for a total payout of $130.88.
Not bad for having seen exactly zero of the movies and performances that were nominated!
Remember, entertainment betting is political betting, and if you’re up on your politics, you can make money wagering on TV, music, and movies without bothering to consume any of it.