US Betting Sites Show Uphill Battle For Trump In 2020 Swing States

donald trump playing golf

Well, this is it folks.

It’s your last chance.

Maybe in a lot of ways.

But it’s definitely your last chance to get your bets in at any of the best online sportsbooks offering lines on the 2020 Presidential election.

The Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden showdown has been the most expensive election in history, with the latter significantly outspending the former on his way to dominating at the odds boards for most of the cycle.

Currently, less than 24 hours from Election Day, the betting boards have the two candidates as follows:

2020 Presidential Election Odds

Bovada

  • Joe Biden -180
  • Donald Trump +150

BetOnline

  • Joe Biden -190
  • Donald Trump +165

MyBookie

  • Joe Biden -170
  • Donald Trump +130

As you can see, Biden is up on Trump by 130 points at Bovada, 155 points at BetOnline, and 100 points at MyBookie.

For the entire election cycle, MyBookie has consistently had the race closer than the other two top election betting sites, mainly because the site’s state election odds are closer than those at the other operators.

As with any election, the swing states are the key in 2020, and both candidates are hitting the campaign trail hard in all of these – particularly those manufacturing states in the so-called Rust Belt.

MyBookie’s swing state odds still tend to reflect polling averages more than enthusiasm on the ground, but for bettors high on Trump’s chances to win, there is significantly more money to be won betting on the outcomes in the following battlegrounds:

2020 Swing State Electoral Odds

Via MyBookie Sportsbook

Arizona Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden -130
  • Donald Trump -110

Most polls have Biden up on Trump in AZ by a small margin. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average shows Biden with a one point lead on Trump in the final day before the election, down from a cycle maximum lead of five points for the challenger.

However, 2016’s most accurate pollster, the Trafalgar Group, shows Trump up by 2.5 points in their final survey, as Trafalgar is one of the only firms that attempts to account for the “shy Trump voter.”

The payouts on this aren’t great either way, so we’d save our money for bigger wins elsewhere.

Georgia Presidential Election Odds

  • Donald Trump -170
  • Joe Biden +130

The RCP average for GA shows Biden with a 0.4-point lead in the state. This seems like a stretch, as Trump won Georgia easily in 2016. Again, however, the state could be closer than some people think, and that -170 for Trump is too little reward for our risk.

Florida Presidential Election Odds

  • Donald Trump -165
  • Joe Biden +125

Florida is an interesting case study for 2020. Trump took the state in 2016 by the narrowest of margins, and many analysts view FL as the state most ripe for the flipping.

For most of the cycle, the political odds showed Biden with a decided edge in Florida, sometimes by as many as 20-30 points. However, in the last week, that’s changed, and Trump is again the favorite.

Of course, the payout isn’t great for a state that will come down to the wire, and we’d be hesitant to put any money on this one. For what it’s worth, the RCP average shows Biden up one point in the Sunshine State, which could be renamed the Sundown State if Creepy Joe wins the battleground.

Iowa Presidential Election Odds

  • Donald Trump -400
  • Joe Biden +250

The RCP average in Iowa shows Trump with just a 0.7-point lead. The betting odds, however, indicate otherwise. If you believe that 0.7-point delta is accurate, you should go all in on Biden at +250, because the -400 on Trump is a miserable payout for such a close state (per the polls).

Michigan Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden -280
  • Donald Trump +190

For Trump betting fans, Michigan is one of the money states. The RCP average shows Biden up by 5.1 points, but polling indicates otherwise, especially those numbers from Trafalgar, which has Trump up nearly two points.

Additionally, Trump is reportedly down just one point among black voters in the state. If that’s even close to true, The Donald at +190 is where you should spend your money.

In 2016, Trump won MI by 0.3% of the vote. Making inroads with minority voters in the state could easily propel him to victory there.

Minnesota Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden -350
  • Donald Trump +225

Trump lost MN by 1.5% in 2016. However, with the 1619 Riots and all the recent protests and looting, many pundits believe he’ll attract enough of the suburban vote to get him over the hump this time around.

RCP’s average has Biden up by 4.3 points, but it won’t be that big of a win should the Democratic challenger take it. We like the payout on Trump at +225 here. That said, Trafalgar has Biden up by 2.2 points as of October 30.

Nevada Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden -400
  • Donald Trump +250

Nevada is a tough call. Biden bettors should spend their money elsewhere, given that the state is going to be closer than advertised. The RCP average shows Biden with a 3.6-point lead, and an Axios/Tableau poll taken between September and October shows the candidates in a virtual tie (i.e. both within the poll’s margin of error).

This makes the +250 on Trump a good deal for a coin flip.

Remember, Hillary Clinton won NV in 2016 by just over 27,000 votes, so the state is very much in play, especially if reports of Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics is to believed.

New Hampshire Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden -400
  • Donald Trump +250

Clinton won NH in 2017 by 0.3% of the vote. Given that Libertarian Gary Johnson took 4.1% of that vote while this year’s Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen is polling under two percent in NH, we like Trump at +250.

The RCP average indicates a Biden wipeout in the double digits, but we’re not buying that. NH will be another coin flip, and on coin flips, you take the better payout every time.

North Carolina Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden -125
  • Donald Trump -115

The RCP average shows Trump with a 0.6-point edge in NC, and Trafalgar gives the POTUS a two-point edge on the Democratic challenger. With both lines in the negative, there are better races to put your money on, and we’re staying away from this one.

That said, if we had to bet, we’d bet on Orange here.  

Ohio Presidential Election Odds

  • Donald Trump -280
  • Joe Biden +190

Ohio is in play, with the RCP average giving Trump a 0.2-point lead going into the final day. However, bettors seem to think the state is a foregone conclusion to stay red, as Trump took OH in 2016 by 8.1 points.

It seems remarkably unlikely that Trump will lose the state this time around, especially given that the GOP has registered more voters in the state since 2016 than the Democratic Party has.

Still, -280 isn’t much of a payout, but OH feels like a lock.  

Pennsylvania Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden -165
  • Donald Trump +125

This is the big one. Yes, they’re all big, and if Trump loses FL, for example, he’s a one-termer. But by our reckoning, whichever candidate wins PA wins this thing.

To that end, the RCP average shows Biden’s lead at 4.3 points, which is astounding given his stance on fracking and fossil fuels, both of which are core foundations of the PA economy. Plus, Trump eked out a victory in PA in 2016 and the party has gained ground on new registrants.

Another wrinkle: Attendees at recent Pennsylvania Trump rallies saw a large proportion of Democrats and first-time voters in attendance, which bodes well for Trump’s reelection chances.

On the other hand, a meager +125 payout isn’t the best. But again, on a coin flip, you take the better odds every time.

Texas Presidential Election Odds

  • Donald Trump -400
  • Joe Biden +250

Texas will be a swing state someday, but not tomorrow. Still, at -400, it’s not worth the action. If you think Biden has a shot to take TX, his +250 is a good risk. The RCP average shows the incumbent up by 1.2 points in the Lone Star State.

Wisconsin Presidential Election Odds

  • Joe Biden -350
  • Donald Trump +225

Trafalgar has Trump behind Biden in WI by just 0.4 points, while the RCP average shows the challenger leading the President by 6.6 points. In 2016, Trump won WI by 0.7 points, with Libertarian Gary Johnson siphoning off 3.6% of the Republican vote.

Jorgensen, the LP candidate for 2020, is trending at about 3.1% in the state per Trafalgar, which could give the GOP an edge. At +225, we like Trump’s payout potential here.

In general, not many of these swing state odds are worth going on.

That said, for the few that see Trump trending north of +200 (i.e. MN, NV, NH, and WI), you can bet on Trump in two such states, and if he wins one of them, you’re guaranteed a payout.

The books are clever in not putting Trump up past +300 in any of these, as that would give you even more chances to come out on top should he win any single state among whatever trio you’ve chosen.

Of course, these are all just guesses.

Hopefully, we’ll know which candidate wins each state by Wednesday morning, but this is sure to be a contested election if ever there was one, and we may not know the winner in some of these states for several days – or even weeks – after the fact (which, incidentally, is something else you can bet on at all the best online sportsbooks offering 2020 election odds.

And if you’re one of those bettors who thinks you might have to get out of Dodge on November 4, remember: All the best sites offer mobile sports betting and Bitcoin betting support, so you can place your wagers and collect your payouts wherever you are in the USA.

Or, you know, what’s left of it.